Don't Look Now...

...but the objects in the Brewers rear view mirror really are getting too close for comfort. Not only has their lead over the Cardinals shrunk to six games from a high of 10.5, but they have fallen behind the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second best record (the Phillies are running away with the best record). If the Brewers end up with the the third best record in the National League, then they would have to go on the road to Philadelphia for the first two games of the NLDS - just like 2008.

Does having the second best record matter. Check out this story on ESPN.

The Brewers are a better team than they were in 2008 - much better pitching - but so are the Phillies. Despite the Brewers improved starting pitchers, the Phillies still had the best of the pitching matchups in the four game series concluding today at Miller Park.

Game one on Thursday: Chris Narveson vs. Cole Hamels. Advantage Phillies. Duh.
Game two on Friday: Shaun Marcum vs. Roy Halladay. Advantage Phillies. Duh.
Game three on Saturday: Randy Wolf vs. Cliff Lee. Advantage Phillies. Duh.
Game four on Sunday: Yovani Gallardo vs. Vance Worley. Advantage Brewers.

Fortunately, the matchups won't go this way in the NLDS because the Brewers would probably start Zach Greinke in game one. 

Playoff scenario against the Phillies:

Game one: Zach Greinke vs. Roy Halladay. Advantage Phillies.
Game two: Shaun Marcum vs. Cliff Lee Advantage Phillies. 
Game three: Yovani Gallardo vs. Cole Hamels. Advantage Phillies. 

So, still advantage Phillies, but the Brewers could certainly win any of those matchups. Nonetheless, their hitting has struggled. They could really use Rickie Weeks bat - he pinch hit on Saturday.

But, will we even have to worry about a first round matchup? A week ago, sitting fat and sassy, the Brewers seemed to have the NL Central title in the bag. Today they enter play with only a six game lead over the Red Birds.  The magic number is still 11.

The Cards have 17 games left. Fortunately, four of those games are against the Phillies, but 12 of the 17, including the last 9, are against NL bottom feeders: Pittsburgh, Mets, Cubs, and Astros. After on an off day this Thursday, the Cards play everyday for the last 13 games.

The Brewers only have 15 games left thanks to a couple off days. After today's finale versus the Phillies, Milwaukee closes out with 2 at home versus Colorado, 3 games at Cincinnati and 3 games at Wrigley. They come home to finish the season with apiece against the Marlins and Pirates. Not exactly Murderers Row. 

A six games lead on September 11 is pretty hard to overcome and the Brewers are finishing the last really tough stretch of the season, but remember the '64 Phillies! On September 20 of that season, the Phillies had a 6.5 game lead. They then proceeded to pull off the most massive choke job in sports history. Manager Gen Mauch panicked and started Jim Bunning (the crazy former US Senator from Kentucky) and Chris Short almost every other day! Now those were the days of four-man rotations, but a two-man rotation?! Guess what? It didn't work. Guess who slipped by them for the NL title? Yep, the St. Louis Cardinals.

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But maybe it's better to play the Phillies in a short series? The way baseball sets up the playoffs with a short series (best of five) in round one followed by best of 7 in the next two rounds is counter-intuitive. The fewer times an inferior team has to beat a superior team, the more likely they are to pull off the upset.

I don't know what the historical outcomes show or how big the home field advantage is in a short series. I do know I would prefer to avoid the Phillies as long as possible and hope that somebody else pulls the upset in the NLDS.

Feel free to sort through the facts and report back! http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/

Minnesota - Three-time losers?

Will Minnesota sports fans be three-time losers in three days? Even not counting just living in Minnesota, they may be in for a rough patch. Yesterday, the Badgers cut the Gophers down to size for the sixth straight time and kept Paul Bunyan's Axe. More on that in a moment.

Today, the Twins may finally be eliminated from the baseball playoffs. I actually like the Twinks; for one thing, Joe Mauer is one the best-hitting catchers in the history of the game. It's their trash-bag stadium I can't stand. They are moving to new digs next year. Yes, I still hold a grudge over the Twins beating the Cardinals in 1987. Of course, I also hold a grudge against Don Denkinger from the 1985 World Series. Go Tigers.

And of course, there's the game Monday night between Ted Thompson and Brett Favre, err, the Packers and Vikings. And no, it is not The Game with capital letters. The Badger game was more important in the short- and long-term because the Badgers football program seemed to be on the dge of a precipice before the season and Minnesota seemed poised to take advantage what with their fancy new stadium and all. Obviously, the Twins trying to make the playoffs on the last day of the season is a bigger deal than an NFL game in Week 4.

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As promised: Isn't Paul Bunyan's Axe way too small for Paul Bunyan?

Is it possible to actually the Twins game without buying an extra TV package? Baseball is either stupid or brilliantly evil by making viewers pony up money (on top of their cable or sattelite bills) to watch their product.

What was Mike Lucas thinking when he wrote this sentence stating that playing football games 'on the road' leads to more momentum swings. Uhh, Mike aren't all games a road game for one of the teams?

Six Days, Six Games, One Playoff Spot

Here's a table showing what the Brewers need to do to win the wildcard. You almost have to concede a minimum of two Mets wins because Johan Santana will pitch twice (tonight and Sunday). Here's a computer projection for tonight: AccuScore story

Believe it or not, these folks project the Brewers as the more likely wildcard winner (and these guys sell their services for gaming):

The next three games for the Mets and Brewers will go a long way to deciding this playoff race. New York plays the Chicago Cubs three more times in their current four game series. AccuScore has the Mets winning 63 percent of simulations tonight against the Cubs on the back of a strong start by Johan Santana. However, the Mets are forecasted to lose the final two games in the series in early AccuScore simulations.

Milwaukee meanwhile plays a three game series against the Pirates. AccuScore simulations have the Brewers sweeping the Pirates, including a win in 68.9 percent of simulations tonight. If all goes according to AccuScore forecasts this week, the Brewers will enter the final series of the year with a one game lead over the Mets in the Wild Card race.

The Brewers finish their season with a three game series against the Cubs, while the Mets play three games against the Marlins. The Mets are forecasted to lose their game against Ricky Nolasco, while the Brewers are taking the first two games against the Cubs, which will be enough to clinch the Wild Card with one game to spare.

If Mets Go	Then to Tie Brewers Need to Go	Then to Win Brewers Need to Go
5-1	6-0	Impossible
4-2	5-1	6-0
3-3	4-2	5-1
2-4	3-3	4-2
1-5	2-4	3-3
0-6	1-5	2-4