Six Days, Six Games, One Playoff Spot

Here's a table showing what the Brewers need to do to win the wildcard. You almost have to concede a minimum of two Mets wins because Johan Santana will pitch twice (tonight and Sunday). Here's a computer projection for tonight: AccuScore story

Believe it or not, these folks project the Brewers as the more likely wildcard winner (and these guys sell their services for gaming):

The next three games for the Mets and Brewers will go a long way to deciding this playoff race. New York plays the Chicago Cubs three more times in their current four game series. AccuScore has the Mets winning 63 percent of simulations tonight against the Cubs on the back of a strong start by Johan Santana. However, the Mets are forecasted to lose the final two games in the series in early AccuScore simulations.

Milwaukee meanwhile plays a three game series against the Pirates. AccuScore simulations have the Brewers sweeping the Pirates, including a win in 68.9 percent of simulations tonight. If all goes according to AccuScore forecasts this week, the Brewers will enter the final series of the year with a one game lead over the Mets in the Wild Card race.

The Brewers finish their season with a three game series against the Cubs, while the Mets play three games against the Marlins. The Mets are forecasted to lose their game against Ricky Nolasco, while the Brewers are taking the first two games against the Cubs, which will be enough to clinch the Wild Card with one game to spare.

If Mets Go	Then to Tie Brewers Need to Go	Then to Win Brewers Need to Go
5-1	6-0	Impossible
4-2	5-1	6-0
3-3	4-2	5-1
2-4	3-3	4-2
1-5	2-4	3-3
0-6	1-5	2-4