Saturday, February 12, 2011

Sporting odds

According to my favorite computer ratings - the Sagarin Ratings on USA Today - The Ohio State Buckeyes really are the number one college basketball team. The Badgers check in at number 11 - bit surprising to me, for some reason this edition of Bo's Badgers just doesn't look that impressive to me (although if they find another scorer down the stretch, they could go far dangerous).

On  neutral floor, the Buckeyes would be a 7 1/2 point favorite. The Kohl Center is decidedly un-neutral, however. The Badgers are 149-11 at home during Bo Ryan's tenure. That's an absurd 93.13%.

This crazy home court advantage is really odd because the crowds at the Kohl Center are usually not all that jacked up. Even when they are, it just doesn't seem that loud - i.e. it's not loud enough to cause permanent deafness. But seriously the old Fieldhouse seemed like a much more intimidating environment, except for the fact that those Badgers ranged from the occasional mediocre to cover-your-eyes awful.

Sagarin normally recommends adding 4 points to the home team's rating, which would still give OSU a 3 1/2 point edge.

As in football, a system called "PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR of future games." The Buckeyes edge is only about 4 1/2 using Pure Points on a neutral court. So, rate it a toss up or maybe give the Badgers a point or two....really??

Most of the Wise Guys give the Buckeyes about 2 points (that is, they favor the Buckeyes), but not all.

Badgers Shock Duke

Will we see this scene today?

And why am I at home writing about this game instead of heading out for the Kohl Center? Because I split my season tickets and made some very bad choices: NC State and Michigan State rather than Purdue and Ohio State.

No comments:

Post a Comment