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I also enjoy some of the various futures markets like Intrade Prediction Markets and IEM - Iowa Electronic Markets - The University of Iowa.
RCP is a poll of polls and also includes data from Intrade. 538 uses statistical techniques to analyze polls. Election Projection is also a poll of polls, but also includes some up-to-date news links. Of the three RCP is the most cautious about projecting a winner - a 0-5% margin is a tossup, 5%-10% is leaning and only 10%+ is solid. (I don't much care for the big traditional news sites like NBC or CNN, which seem mainly to want to avoid being wrong.)
So, how does Swami Doug see it? And remember folks, I have a B.S. in political science.
Obama will win with something like 52% of the popular vote to 47% for McCain. Electoral vote: Obama will take a minimum of 311 to McCain's 227. Obama could take a maximum of 406 to McCain's 132, but that would include Georgia, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, and Arizona.
My fairly cautious prediction: Obama 353, McCain 185. I have Obama winning all the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. I wouldn't be shocked (at this point anyway) to see Obama pick up Indiana and Missouri.
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Early voting is throwing a curve ball into projections. Is there an Obama tsunami out there of new voters, especially youth and African Americans? OR is it just all the highly motivated voters turning out early instead of on election day? If it is the former, then it could be Obama blowout. Probably more important, a boost in turnout could help win some close US Senate and US House races.
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Of course, I thought the Stinkin' Badgers (Stinking Badges Home Page) were going to win today when they were up by eleven points with 9 minutes to go, but No. 21 Michigan St. tops Wisconsin with FG.
That's pretty close to what we are forecasting however we have Indiana and North Carolina as too close to call: http://www.hubdub.com/election_map
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