Brewers Final Word

Unlike the Cubs, who choked on high expectations, the Brewers actually had a successful season, if only moderately so. After a 26-year absence from post-season play the team was expected to make a run at the playoffs and did so. The Cubs or their fans or the Chicago media or all three somehow decided that this year the Cubs would win the World Series after a 100-year drought or they would be a failure. In baseball that is just plain crazy talk. Regular season baseball success does not always equate to post-season success. Weird things can happen in the playoffs and when a team has accepted absurd expectations weird things become likely to happen.

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But what do the Brewers need to do this off season to stay in the 90 win neighborhood?

First, they need to add starting pitching. Sheets and Sabathia are free agents. Sheets gets hurt too often for Brewers to risk the money he will still command. Signing Sabathia is a dream that won't come true. How much will he command? Johan Santana made $17 million for the Mets on his new $137.5 million, six-year contract this year.

The Brewers return Dave Bush, Manny Parra, Yovani Gallardo, and Jeff Suppan. In descending order, that's one proven starter, two guys with tons of potential neithert of whom has pitched 200 innings total in their career, and an expensive has-been. Soup has just gotten too easy to hit: his opponent batting averages jumped over 20 points the last two years.

Depth in starters is invaluable because injuries will occur and some players will fall below expectations. The Brewers may have potential starting pitching depth in Seth McClung, but need more. Carlos Villanueva is probably not part of that answer.

Lacking from that list is a real number 1 starter - an established number one not potential - and that is the team's major need. They can obtain one by free agency or trade.

Here's a list of viable free agent starting pitchers from Cot's Baseball Contracts: 2009 Free Agents:

A.J. Burnett TOR (may opt out)
Ryan Dempster CHC
John Lackey * LAA (Team option)
Braden Looper STL
Derek Lowe LAD
C.C. Sabathia MIL

A trade for a number one would require giving up major talent, the most likely being Prince Fielder. There are several good reasons to trade Fielder: his weight has ballooned, he is arbitration eligible and will get a multi-million dollar raise from his current $670,000, and his agent is Scott Boras so the chances of signing him as a free agent in three years will be, err, slim. I recently saw a 2005 picture of Fielder and was shocked to see just how huge he has gotten. Yikes!

But trading Fielder also would create a hole at first base.

The Brewers next biggest need is a high average, high on-base percentage everyday player. They have too many guys that strike out a ton, hit for a low average, don't walk, and do not hit enough homers to make up for all that, to wit: Bill Hall, Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, and Mike Cameron. Cameron fanned a staggering 142 times in just 444 at bats! That's 32%! Bill Hall is close behind with 124 KO's in 404 AB's or 31%.

Bill Hall is untradeable and unplayable and a expensive - a bad trifecta.

Mike Cameron provides very good defense and a little power. If he was the only one of his ilk on the team, maybe you could live with him. He's not and has to go.

Corey Hart was just godawful for the last month. Michael Hunt at the MJS thinks he may have been hurt. (See our email exchange below). Let's hope there was something specific going on that can be healed or fixed. You cannot trade him now and he may very well rebound to become a solid hitter. Hart basically never walks. He had the second worst BB/K ratio in the NL and pitchers took advantage.

A small warning sign: Ryan Braun rarely walks either.

Rickie Weeks, the player fans love to hate, is about the only guy who know on to work a count. He still whiffs too much, flubs easy plays in the field, and doesn't hit for average. Still, Weeks could fix his shortcomings by raising his batting average just 25 or 30 points to the .260-ish range. His OBP would then be in the top 20 in the NL.

Moving J.J. Hardy to 3B and promoting Alcides Escobar to starting shortstop could improve the team in three ways: better defense, better batting average, and keep Bill Hall on the bench. That all hinges on Escobar being able to make the leap from AAA to the Show.

Some may think the Brewers need to add a closer, but I don't. Torres was serviceable, McClung might be able to do it. Even Gagne, but not at $10 million a year. Teams can get 90% of the saves that a top closer would get while spending about a 1/4 of the dough. It is too easy to blow money on a closer and the Brewers cannot afford it.

Last, for now anyway, they need to add a left-handed bat - a good one, not Craig Counsell - preferably a starter. Hmm, Mat Gamel could fill the bill (Mat Gamel Statistics (Minor Leagues) - Baseball-Reference.com), but he's probably a year away and he's another third baseman who can't field either.

The Brewers have 12 free agents, but only four of consequence: Mike Cameron, Eric Gagne, CC Sabathia, and Salomon Torres.

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Here's the email exchange I had with Milwaukee JS columnist Michael Hunt:

-----Original Message-----
From: Doug Wood [dougwood57@charter.net]
Sent: Mon 10/6/2008 1:42 PM
To: Michael Hunt
Subject: Dave Bush??

Hi. I just read your Monday end-of-the-season column and agreed with most if it with a quibble or two. And one large-sized exception to your omission of Dave Bush from the future of the pitching staff.

Bush had the 5th best WHIP in the NL at 1.14. Look at the list to appreciate how good that is. Bush was also second on the Brewers in innings pitched. Manny Parra has tons of potential, but he hasn't harnessed it yet.

I have a much lesser disagreement with your call to dump Rickie Weeks. As frustrating as Weeks is, he is about the only guy on the team who knows how to work the count. His OBP this year was 108 points above his batting average. He scores a lot of runs. A small improvement in batting average would make him a pretty decent offensive player.

Bill Hall on the other hand should get about 404 fewer at bats next year (and I'm not one of the Bill Hall haters). Your idea of moving Hardy to 3b and Escobar in at SS is intriguing.

And Corey Hart? What happened to him? Something is not right when I can sit at home and call for a 2-strike off-speed pitch low and away and well outside the striek zone. The pticher throws it, Hart swings, Hart sits. The guy was a mess. I could not figure out why Yost/Sveum did not let somebody else play a couple days a week. No good options? They could not have done any worse than Hart.

Regards,
Doug Wood


You're right about Bush, Doug. I'm encouraged by his finish and didn't mean to leave him out. Hall's contract is a big problem - I think they owe him about $14 million over the next two, but maybe they'll be a taker. It's just that I get so frustrated with Rickie. He's got HofF ability, just can't seem to get it together. I'm guessing Hart was playing hurt. If not, wow, what a spiral. Thanks, Doug.

Michael Hunt