Prognostications - UPDATED Saturday afternoon

It's late Saturday afternoon. One significant addition: Jeff Wiswell was out doing a lit drop today. That reinforces my earlier prognosis.

Couple other add ons. I forgot to mention in my yard sign count that Kugle and Wiswell appear to have the bar endorsements locked up. VonAllmen has two signs on Broadway by the Antlers Tavern - but, uhh, that's in Madison.

And I forgot to mention that my predictions come with no guarantees whatsoever. After all, I thought the Badgers would beat Davidson. Ouch!

Original Post with Add Ons in Italics

In addition to the public policy and public service side of politics, I also enjoy the horse race aspect. With national politics, of course, you have polls and analysis out the wazoo. Not so with local politics. Over the years I have developed some rules of thumb for making somewhat informed wild guesses about the outcome of local elections.

Actually, I have only one rule of thumb: the candidates that work the hardest win. This assumes a candidate who is reasonably presentable and who can speak and write coherently. An example of a candidate who would not pass the test is the fellow running for Monona city council many years ago who stated in his hand-typed literature: "Monona is place. People like to live." Two irrefutable statements that nonetheless did not advance his campaign to the victory circle.

All five of the candidates for city council in 2008 certainly meet and exceed the minimum coherence test. So, how would my 'hard work test' apply? Judging solely from the number of yard signs, Wiswell, Kugle and Speight are roughly equal with a slight edge to Wiswell. Thomas and VonAllmen have decidedly fewer than the boys, but each of them have a more than negligible number. BTW, I did not actually count signs, but just drove around the main streets in town.

Who has been more actively campaigning? Answering that question is more subjective and the attempt suffers from less-than-complete knowledge. All five responded and were featured in the Herald Independent's election coverage. On the other hand, Wiswell did not answer the League of Women Voters questions (Alders ) and VonAllmen was a no-show at the candidates' forum. All of the candidates had some letters to the editor, but I think Speight and Wiswell had the most. These letters generally do not occur accidentally. Only Speight and Wiswell have run ads in the Herald.

Going door-to-door and doing lit drops is the best indicator of who's doing the work. It takes a lot of time and commitment to hit the pavement week-in and week-out and organizing a city-wide lit drop isn't a piece of cake. BTW, getting out and walking the city is a great way for any candidate to really get to to know the city. To my knowledge, Chad Speight is the only candidate who has been going door-to-door. Speight and Kugle are the only ones who I know are doing lit drops - we may learn differently this weekend. As noted above, Wiswell was out doing a lit drop today also.

Some other factors to consider: Kathy Thomas has been around a looong time. The voters know her, so maybe her relative inactivity is not critical for her. She finished second in a field of four last time. Kugle finished first in his first run.

Monona likes a newcomer (at least if they meet the credibility test and do the work). See, e.g. Bob Miller in 2007, Dennis Kugle in 2006, and my own first campaign back in dawn of time (1989) - we all finished first as newcomers who beat the pavement. This factor would seem to favor Speight.

Monona likes its progressives. Peter McKeever and I have both won election in years when we were the only self-identified progressive candidate running. This factor would favor Speight.

And then there's the issues. I left them out because they are the least measurable. The issues writ large matter, but do specific issues change people's votes? Maybe on a very few hot button issues, but I don't know if there are any this time. The smoking ban? Maybe. Stance on the 2006 MG referendum? (Besides being a school board issue, that debate's over folks - let's all move on).

So based on this highly unscientific seat-of-the-pants analysis, one would say Kugle, Speight and Wiswell are likely to be the top three finishers and Thomas is likely to edge out VonAllmen.

Prior Election Results are avilable on the Dane County Clerk's web page.