Looking Ahead - 2008

Wonk alert! I know, I know, it's too early to start thinking about the Presidential race, but I find it useful (and interesting) to do a post-mortem on an election just past to see if has any hints of elections yet-to-come. Memorably, a review of the bitter Dukakis loss in 1988 revealed the outlines of a possible Democratic electoral college majority - which Clinton fulfilled four years later (with help from Ross Perot).

The first thing to recall - and it is hard to do because John Kerry has been trashed so badly since 2004 - is that Bush was extraordinarily lucky to get re-elected in 2004. His margin was razor-thin and he had no room for error.

The U.S. Electoral College Calculator allows you to look at historical data and play around with various scenarios. Likewise, Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 has the actual results from 2004 with percentages by state.

The scene is set for an emerging Democratic majority. The Republican party has become more and more boxed in due to the extreme elements that have taken the helm. The Republicans start with just 165 likely electoral votes - with an edge in the South (excluding Florida, Virginia and Arkansas, but including Kentucky and Tennessee) and the Plains States.

The Democrats start at 255 electoral votes. Kerry won 251 electoral votes - I would take away New Hampshire, but add Iowa as likely Democratic states in 2008.

The difference here is that nearly all of the 165 Republicans votes are virtually unassailable, while only about 156 of the Democrats votes are as secure. However, this gap has gotten a lot smaller.

The midterm seems to tell us that several new states are in play or are likely to fall to the Democrats in 2008. Arizona, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, and Montana are up for grabs (I still can't put Indiana or Tennessee in that category - and Virginia is perhaps a stretch, but that state really is changing.).

The Democrats control the West Coast and the Northeast and are favorites in the Upper Midwest - OK, the entire Midwest, except Indiana. The Dems have 373 electoral votes that are reasonable targets (still excluding In., Tn. , and Ky.). The GOP gets to 345, but only if Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and N.H. flip and Ohio and Florida hold.

Basically, these are the same states that Clinton put together in 1992 and 1996. The difference now is that it looks easier to get to at least 270 or even another 100 votes higher. Bottom line: The Democrats have a significantly larger margin for error than Republicans in 2008.