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If you’re faint of heart, quit reading now. If you’re a scaredy cat Democrat who wants to lowball the Dems chance so you don’t risk feeling disappointed on Election Night – stop reading.
From every source I can see the Democrats are poised to blow the Republicans out of the House, the Senate and the Governor’s seats. First of all, the number of Democratic seats – incumbents or open - projected to lose on Tuesday is exactly zero. None, zilch. Larry Sabato discusses this historic phenomenon on his Crystal Ball web site today.
Sabato projects the Dems will pick up the needed six seats to control the Senate and 27 House seats to gain a 230-205 majority.
So, like a running back with a head of steam the Dems can just about fall forward and pick up- the seats they need. Real Clear Politics also projects the Donkeys will take over the Senate. RCP also projects 12 GOP House seats leaning Democratic and now 18, count ‘em 18 GOP seats rated as toss-ups. A week ago the same site had only 10 leaning and 15 toss-ups. An additional 18 GOP seats are merely leaning Republican according to RCP.
My DD projects a 23-29 seat gain in the House and a 5 seat gain in the Senate (chicken!).
Intrade now gives the Dems a 75% chance of taking the House (up by 10%) and 31% for the Senate.
My guess is the Democrats will take 25 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Montana, Missouri, and Virginia).
Friday, November 03, 2006
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In our stupid 'winner take all' voting system, the only appropriate ballot to cast is for 'none of the above'. Since I cannot vote for what I want, I'll vote for what I must...NONE OF THE ABOVE!
ReplyDeleteIt may be stupid, but it's the system we have. Elections do have consequences. Right now the Democrats srongest point may be that they are not right wing Republicans. This is politics - we aren't choosing saints.
ReplyDelete