Posts
I have a number polling web sites I look at and here's what they say. First, the Dems need to gain 6 seats in the Senate and 15 in the House to take control. Winning the Senate has always been a longshot.
RealClearPolitics , a conservative site, has the Dems gaining 5 Senate seats. Ford has slipped behind in Tennessee (under attack of slimy racist ads), but James Webb has pullled ahead of Senator Macaca, er, George Allen in Virginia.
A progressive web site, My DD projects a 24 to 29 seat gain in the House. My DD projects Dem Senate gains in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Rhode Island and Montana. By the way, My DD is great source for the latest political ads.
Another conservative polling group, Rasmussen has the Senate split 48 GOP, 47 DEM and 5 toss-ups, 4 of which are held by Republicans. The tossups are the usual suspects: NJ, Missouri, Tenn., Montana, and Virginia.
Yet another conservative site, Election Projection projects the Dems barely taking the House by gaining 17 seats and the GOP holding on 51-49 in the Senate.
The political market web site, Intrade now gives the Dem a 69.9% chance of taking the House (up 4% since last week) and a 33% chance of taking the Senate (up 3% since last week).
Check out Constituent Dynamics It has detailed polling for the top 60 House races - little John Gard is behind 51-45 in his race. They project a huge Dem win leaving the House at 240-195, a gain of 38 seats.
My best guess is that the Dems will gain Pa., Ohio, R.I., and Montana and hold N.J., Maryland, and Michigan, but fail to pick up Tenn., Virginia, and Missouri and thus only gain 4 seats. Missouri has disappointed me in just about every close election in the last 30 years and I don't expect that to change.
The House is harder to peg because of the lack of polling generally available, but I'll guess the Dems will gain 20 seats
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Doug, what do you think the impact of the verbal miscue by John Kerry will be on the close races? Amazingly, Democrats keep finding ways to trip themselves up...
ReplyDeleteIt probably won't do Kerry much good if he decides to run for Prez again - the big name strategists and money people won't be pleased with this kind of stumble.
ReplyDeleteDo you know where Shrub was yesterday? In Tom Delay's district in Texas that the GOP should never have lost and now have no chance to win.
I doubt it will have much impact. It may not matter, but it's pretty clear Kerry really was telling ajoke and messed it up. But I just think there's too much momentum behind the Dems.
And besides, they have to mention Iraq to mention Kerry's gaffe!
My guess is this story does not have legs.
I think Rove is right - the polls don't matter. Things are close, and republican turn out efforts and voter suppression efforts will shift the vote by a few percentage points. Enough to keep republicans in control of the house too.
ReplyDeleteWell, I suppose we'll have to wait and see who wins, but my original point was that Rove was just playing mind games.
ReplyDeleteReal Clear Politics shifted more toward the Dems today as did Rasmussen - both conservative sites.