Poll Watching

One poll after another shows Barack Obama with somewhere between moderate, solid, or shocking leads..and then comes the AP poll by IPD/TIPP that shows Obama with a one point lead at 44-43. Ack! Panic! I knew it was too good to be true - we're doomed, doomed I tell you!!!!

Oh, but wait, the folks over at FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right took a closer look at the internals. The poll's sample includes a 74%-22% among 18 to 24 year-olds for McCain. Surprise! JohnnyMac is big with the kids, my friends. Oopsie.

The full details: What's Wrong With This Picture? (a.k.a. Nate the Poll Nazi Strikes Again)

Maybe it's just as well that this poll get plenty of play - I saw a piece somewhere (can't find it again) about how Democrats totally expect something to go wrong no matter how good things look, in fact the better things look, the more they worry. I suspect this malady only strikes Democrats over a certain age.

If you are not of this persuasion try:

Big Ten polling consortium and Quinnipiac University and MSU-Billings