Dem Debacle? "I am not a member of any organized party—I am a Democrat." Will Rogers

Have the Democrats devised a way to throw away what looks to be a nearly certain Presidential victory? Eight years of George W. Bush have worn out any remaining spirit in the Reagan Revolution that started over a quarter century ago (gad!). The Democrats own the much-touted 'enthusiasm gap' (THE ENTHUSIASM GAP, Crystal Ball, U.Va.). But.....


How about a nasty, mean, vicious, cutthroat delegate credentials battle at the convention in August? (The Official 2008 Democratic National Convention) The Democrats declared the 366 delegates from Michigan and Florida to be persona non grata because their state parties moved up the date of their primaries after being warned not to do so by the Party. At the time that penalty struck me as draconian, but I didn't give it a lot of thought because, hey, we all knew that Hillary was going to clean up on Hyper Tuesday and wrap up the nomination in early February. And then Obama happened. And now things aren't so clear.

Obama looks to be the odds on favorite at this point with 11 consecutive primary and caucus wins, but if those Florida and Michigan delegates are seated based on their uncontested primaries - poof goes the lead and Clinton is in the driver's seat - of a bus headed over the cliff.

According to CNN (Election Center 2008: Delegate Scorecard - Elections & Politics ...), Obama has 1319 delegates (including 161 superdelegates) and Clinton has 1250 (including 234 supers). The nomination requires 2025 delegates. So, Obama needs 706 more delegates. (These numbers do not include the Michigan and Florida delegates).

But can the Democrats really have a national convention and not seat any delegates from two populous states that a Democrat needs to win to secure an electoral college victory? Can Obama secure a large enough lead that the seating of those delegations won't matter? How likely is it that this delegate battle could turn the race in Clinton's favor, which would look like a back room dirty deal and bring her out as a deeply wounded candidate for the general election?

According to DemConWatch (2008 Democratic Convention Watch: Superdelegate Endorsement List) with the Michigan and Florida delegates (and superdelegates) included Clinton would take the lead 1456-1422 if the delegates are assigned based on the primary outcomes and superdelegate pledges (with 2207 needed to win). Yikes.

There are about 310 unpledged superdelegates (about 340 with Florida and Michigan). There are 1000 delegates left to be chosen by caucus or primary. With Florida and Michigan included and assigned based on the outcome of the uncontested primaries, Obama would need to garner 785 delegates of 1340 delegates still up for grabs. That's almost 59% of the remaining delegates, if those Florida and Michigan delegates are seated based on the primaries. Obama's nomination doesn't look so inevitable does it?

The Democrats created this mess with the precipitous decision to take away delegates. The Democrats risk alienating voters in two critical states if they don't seat any delegates from Florida and Michigan. The only worse option is seating the delegates based on those illegitimate primaries. They can't seat the delegates based on the outcome of two uncontested primaries, especially since that would very possibly change the outcome of the whole years-long process. What a mess.

Still, one suspects that if Obama continues to win the Dems will find a way to award Obama the nomination he will have earned and seat