An Iowa Market for Tommy

An older kind of Iowa Market

At the risk of exposing myself for the hopeless political geek that I am – and I really do know it is way too early to start thinking about the 2008 US Presidential elections unless you think one of the candidates is going to give you a job (for the record, I don’t) – but the Iowa Electronic Markets have an interesting early insight into the GOP race. (The Iowa Electronic Markets are future markets and take bets, err, investments, on future political outcomes.) The nomination ‘markets’ only opened on March 2, 2007, but as of today the market gives Giuliani a 27% chance of winning, Romney a 22%, McCain a 17%, and the ROF – rest-of-the-field a 33% chance to win the GOP Presidential nomination!

In other words, the Other Guys are the favorites. This kind of thing should cheer up the “2-bit hack from Elroy”, our own Tommy Thompson. Or, maybe it should really cheer up the Democrats.